Date of Award

2024

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (College of Arts and Science)

Schools and Centres

Arts & Sciences

First Supervisor

Associate Professor Daniel Baldino

Second Supervisor

Professor Martin Drum

Abstract

Australia’s 21st century has been heavily influenced by a growing number of cyber incidents ranging from individuals causing extraordinary damage to state-based attacks from adversary states such as China. Focusing on state actors in the cyber domain, this thesis investigates Martin Libicki’s cyber-deterrence framework, with a specific emphasis on the employment of deterrence by punishment, and applies this concept to the case study of the relationship between Australia and China.

In recent years, Australia has been consistently targeted by sophisticated state-based cyber actors and the Australian Government has appeared increasingly prepared to publicly criticise Beijing as a key security challenge. Meanwhile, ideas related to cyber deterrence are becoming even more complicated because the field of interstate competition is expanding. With states such as China putting more effort into seeking advantage through means that fall just short of war, countries such as Australia are continuing to seek to formulate more sophisticated, relevant concepts of deterrence that include establishing thresholds, communicating threats and attributing accurately.

Overall, a range of cyber incidents have highlighted the increasing need for Australia to have a robust deterrence framework that can affect the strategic thoughts and policy processes of China. Further, Australia and China do often appear to have contradictory outlooks on the cyber domain and how states should approach it which has led to diplomatic contestation. Nonetheless, deterrence strategies, including by punishment, aim to reduce the likelihood of conflict and attempt to establish thresholds that states can adhere to while understanding the ramifications of political actions.

Yet, various obstacles and challenges will make deterrence by punishment an ongoing policy challenge in cyberspace, but also potentially destabilising in terms of efforts to constrain state behaviour especially given the background of broader geopolitical tensions between Australia and China. The thesis will argue that the prospect of ‘successful’ deterrence in cyberwarfare does exist for Australia, at least in part and under particular circumstances against China and that Libicki’s framework is a useful policy tool for Australia. It will also present potential simulations exercises that decision-makers in Australia could utilise.

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