We addressed the paucity of data describing the characteristics and consequences of incident aortic stenosis (AS).


Adults undergoing echocardiography with a native aortic valve (AV) and no AS were studied. Subsequent age-specific and sex-specific incidence of AS were derived from echocardiograms conducted a median of 2.8 years apart. Progressive AV dysfunction and individually linked mortality were examined per AS category.


49 449 men (53.9%, 60.9±15.8 years) and 42 229 women (61.6±16.9 years) with no initial evidence of AS were identified. Subsequently, 6293 (6.9%) developed AS—comprising 5170 (5.6%), 636 (0.7%), 339 (0.4%) and 148 (0.2%) cases of mild, moderate, severe low-gradient and severe high-gradient AS, respectively. Age-adjusted incidence rates of all grades of AS were 17.5 cases per 1000 men/annum and 18.7 cases per 1000 women/annum: rising from ~5 to ~40 cases per 1000/annum in those aged <30 years vs >80 years. Median peak AV velocity increased by +0.57 (+0.36 to +0.80) m/s in mild AS compared with +2.75 (+2.40 to +3.19) m/s in severe high-gradient AS cases between first and last echocardiograms. During subsequent median 7.7 years follow-up, 24 577 of 91 678 cases (26.8%) died. Compared with no AS, the adjusted risk of all-cause mortality was 1.42-fold higher in mild AS, 1.92-fold higher in moderate AS, 1.95-fold higher in severe low-gradient AS and 2.27-fold higher in severe, high-gradient AS cases (all p<0.001).


New onset AS is a common finding among older patients followed up with echocardiography. Any grade of AS is associated with higher mortality, reinforcing the need for proactive vigilance.


Echocardiography, Aortic stenosis, Health outcomes, Heart interventions

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